NVIDIA (NVDA) Corporate Analysis and Investment Strategy Report
[링크] 오디오로 듣기
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Stock Analysis & Forecast Report
1. Investment Summary
Investment Rating
Strong Buy
Price Target (12-Mo)
$150.00
Current Price (As of Nov 2025)
$130.50
Recent Stock Performance (1-Year)
NVIDIA's stock has seen significant volatility but a strong upward trend, driven by exceptional earnings in its Data Center division and broad market enthusiasm for AI.
Key Investment Points
- Unmatched AI Dominance: GPUs (H100, B200) are the industry standard for training large language models.
- Data Center Growth: Explosive revenue growth from cloud providers and enterprise AI adoption.
- Strong Economic Moat: CUDA software ecosystem creates high switching costs for developers.
Key Risk Factors
- High Valuation: Stock trades at a significant premium, making it vulnerable to market corrections.
- Competitive Pressure: AMD, Intel, and in-house chips (Google TPU, Apple) are challenging market share.
- Geopolitical Risk: Heavy reliance on TSMC for manufacturing and significant revenue exposure to China.
2. Company Profile
What is NVIDIA?
Founded in 1993, NVIDIA is a global technology leader, pioneering accelerated computing. Once known primarily for gaming GPUs (GeForce), the company has transformed into the dominant provider of hardware and software for Artificial Intelligence, Data Centers, and High-Performance Computing.
- CEO: Jensen Huang
- Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, USA
- Business Model: Primarily B2B (selling chips and platforms to cloud providers, enterprises, and OEMs) and B2C (gaming GPUs).
Revenue Breakdown (FY2025 Est.)
The company's revenue stream has dramatically shifted. The Data Center segment, powered by AI chip sales, is now the largest contributor by a wide margin.
Economic Moat: The CUDA Ecosystem
NVIDIA's most significant competitive advantage isn't just hardware; it's the CUDA software platform. This diagram shows how hardware and software create a reinforcing cycle that locks in developers and customers.
Dominant GPUs
Industry-leading hardware for AI training & inference.
CUDA Platform
Software layer that millions of developers build on.
Developer Lock-In
High switching costs; code is optimized for CUDA.
Ecosystem Growth
More apps & models drive more demand for GPUs.
3. Industry Analysis & Competition
Discrete GPU Market Share (Q3 2025)
In the discrete GPU market (both gaming and data center), NVIDIA maintains a commanding lead. While AMD has a solid footing, Intel's entry into the dGPU space is still nascent.
Competitive Landscape
NVIDIA faces threats from established rivals, startups, and its own customers.
| Competitor | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | Strong in CPU/GPU integration; growing AI (MI300). | Software ecosystem (ROCm) lags far behind CUDA. |
| Intel | Massive scale; strong enterprise relationships. | Late to the high-performance GPU market. |
| Cloud Providers | (Google, Amazon) Develop in-house AI chips (TPUs, Inferentia). | Primarily for internal use; not a direct-to-market threat yet. |
4. Financial Performance
Revenue & Net Income Growth (Fiscal Years)
The company's financial trajectory has been exponential, driven by the AI boom. Revenue and profitability have surged to unprecedented levels in the last two years.
Profitability Ratios vs. Industry
NVIDIA's profitability metrics are in a class of their own, reflecting its pricing power and high-margin product mix. It significantly outperforms the semiconductor industry average.
Financial Stability
The company maintains a stellar balance sheet with a strong cash position and manageable debt.
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.25
- Current Ratio: 4.10
- Cash on Hand: $31B
Low debt and high liquidity provide immense flexibility for R&D, acquisitions, and weathering economic downturns.
5. Valuation & Forecast
Valuation vs. Peers (Forward P/E)
NVIDIA trades at a high forward P/E ratio, reflecting market expectations of its superior growth. While it's expensive compared to legacy chipmakers, it's more in line with high-growth tech.
Wall Street Analyst Consensus
The overwhelming majority of Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the stock, with a high number of "Strong Buy" ratings and very few "Sell" recommendations.
Price Target Scenarios (12-Month)
Our target price is based on a DCF model and P/E expansion, assuming continued dominance in AI. We outline three potential paths for the stock.
Worst Case: $100
A severe macro downturn or major competitive breakthrough by AMD/Intel could lead to multiple compression.
Base Case: $150
Our official target. Assumes AI growth continues as expected and NVIDIA maintains its market share and high margins.
Best Case: $185
If new markets (like Automotive AI or Sovereign AI) accelerate faster than expected, earnings could significantly beat estimates.
6. Conclusion & Strategy
Final Verdict: A Core Holding for the AI Revolution
Despite a high valuation, we believe NVIDIA's entrenched leadership in the generational shift to accelerated computing and AI justifies its premium. The company's economic moat, powered by the CUDA ecosystem, remains secure. Growth in the Data Center is set to continue, with new drivers like AI on-device and sovereign AI providing further upside.
We rate NVDA a Strong Buy with a 12-month price target of $150.
Investment Strategy
-
⮞
Investor Type: Best suited for long-term growth investors who can tolerate volatility.
-
⮞
Strategy: We recommend a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach. Use any significant pullbacks (10-15%) as buying opportunities to build a full position.
-
⮞
Key Monitor: Watch data center revenue growth and gross margins in quarterly earnings reports. Any signs of deceleration will be the first red flag.
Date: November 7, 2025
Analyst:
Report Type: Deep-Dive Equity Research
1. Executive Summary
This report issues a 'Strong Buy' rating for NVIDIA (NVDA) and raises the 12-month price target to $240.00. The current stock price ($196.92 as of November 6, 2025, close) 1 appears to have over-reacted to recent geopolitical headwinds (China export ban) while not fully reflecting the value of the massive new 'Sovereign AI' market. This presents an attractive entry point.
NVIDIA is no longer just a semiconductor chip company; it is the exclusive provider of the 'Full-Stack' platform for the AI era. The market is focused on the $8 billion Chinese market revenue loss 2 yet overlooks the growth of the newly emerging $20 billion Sovereign AI market.3 This imbalance will resolve in the coming quarters as growth is proven to more than offset the China shortfall.
- Investment Rating: Strong Buy
- Price Target: $240.00 (12-month basis)
- Current Price: $196.92 (As of Nov 6, 2025 close) 1
- Key Investment Points Summary:
- Blackwell Super-cycle: The full production of the next-generation Blackwell architecture (GB200) 4 and the strong performance of H200 5 maintain NVIDIA's overwhelming technology leadership, capturing over 80% of the AI hardware market.6
- 'Sovereign AI' New Market: The 'Sovereign AI' market has emerged as a new, massive demand source, offsetting hyperscaler risks. Over $20 billion in revenue is expected in the current fiscal year (FY26) alone 3, representing more than double the growth of the previous year.
- 'AI Factory' Full-Stack Domination: NVIDIA has expanded its dominance from GPUs (Compute) to Spectrum-X (Networking). The networking segment grew 98% year-over-year in Q2 FY26 7, and its adoption by major customers like Meta and Oracle 8 maximizes the lock-in effect of NVIDIA's data center solutions.
- Key Risk Factors Summary:
- US-China Geopolitical Risk: The most immediate threat is the US Trump administration's ban on exporting the latest Blackwell chips to China, enacted in November 2025.9 A $4.5 billion inventory write-down for H20 chips and an $8 billion revenue impact have already occurred 2, raising the possibility of a complete loss of the Chinese market.
- Hyperscalers' 'Rebellion': NVIDIA's largest customers—Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium), and Microsoft (Maia)—are accelerating their in-house AI chip development.11 This threatens NVIDIA's long-term pricing power and margins, with some (JPMorgan) projecting in-house chips could capture 45% of the AI accelerator market by 2028.11
- Recent 1-Year Stock Price Trend:
- (Chart visualization: A V-shaped graph starting from November 2024 (around $130s), hitting a 52-week high in October 2025 ($212.19), followed by a correction to the $190 level in early November due to China risks) 1
2. Company Profile
Company Introduction
NVIDIA is a global technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California 18, founded on April 5, 1993, by Jensen Huang (current CEO), Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem.18 Founder Jensen Huang has served as CEO since 1993, guiding the company's vision.19
NVIDIA invented the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) in 1999, sparking the growth of the PC gaming market.19 In 2006, it released the parallel computing platform CUDA 21, evolving the GPU from a simple graphics card into a high-performance computing device for general science and research. In 2012, the AlexNet neural network used NVIDIA GPUs to achieve a decisive victory in an image recognition competition, igniting the modern AI revolution.21
Major Business Segments and Revenue Structure
Since 2020, NVIDIA has completed its fundamental transformation from a gaming-centric company to a 'Data Center'-centric AI company. As of the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending October 27, 2024), the Data Center segment's revenue was $30.771 billion, accounting for 87.7% of the company's total revenue ($35.082 billion).22 This represents a 112% growth year-over-year. In contrast, the traditional Gaming segment accounted for only 9.3% of revenue.
22
| Business Segment | Q3 FY25 Revenue ($M) | Quarterly Growth (QoQ) | Year-over-Year Growth (YoY) | % of Total Revenue |
| Data Center | 30,771 | +17.1% | +112.0% | 87.7% |
| Gaming | 3,279 | +13.9% | +14.8% | 9.3% |
| Professional Visualization | 486 | +7.0% | +16.8% | 1.4% |
| Automotive | 449 | +29.8% | +72.0% | 1.3% |
| OEM & Other | 97 | +10.2% | +32.9% | 0.3% |
| TOTAL | 35,082 | +16.8% | +93.6% | 100.0% |
Business Model
NVIDIA operates a platform-based B2B model, moving beyond simple B2B chip sales to provide an end-to-end platform 23 that integrates hardware (GPU, networking), software (CUDA, AI Enterprise), systems (DGX), and services (NVIDIA GPU Cloud).
The core of its revenue generation is providing all the necessary components for customers (enterprises, hyperscalers, nations) to build an 'AI Factory' 24 for developing and deploying AI models.
Economic Moat
NVIDIA's economic moat lies in a 'Dual Moat' structure that inverts the traditional "razor/razor blade" business model.
- CUDA Software Ecosystem (Network Effect): This is the strongest and most difficult-to-penetrate moat. Launched in 2006, CUDA 23 is the standard for AI development, used by over 6 million developers 6 and 40,000 companies.21 Tens of thousands of AI applications and libraries are built on CUDA, creating a powerful network effect.26
- High Switching Costs: NVIDIA has locked in the developer ecosystem by distributing the 'razor blade'—the CUDA platform—effectively for free.27 To use a competitor's (AMD) hardware, developers must port existing CUDA code to the buggy ROCm platform.28 The time, cost, and performance-risk (switching costs) associated with this process are prohibitively high.6
- Overwhelming Margin on the 'Razor': Armed with the CUDA software lock-in, NVIDIA sells the 'razor'—the GPU hardware (H100, Blackwell)—at a phenomenal gross margin exceeding 70%.30
- Full-Stack Integration: NVIDIA provides optimal performance by integrating the GPU (Blackwell), CPU (Grace), and Networking (NVLink, Spectrum-X) at the rack-scale.4 Competitors cannot offer this entire integrated stack 6, allowing NVIDIA to maximize both system-wide performance and margins.
Ironically, this seemingly perfect business model provides the very motivation for its largest customers (Google, Microsoft, etc.) to design their own chips (razors) to escape the high 'razor' prices 11 and 'lock-in' 13 (see Section 5, Risk Factors).11
3. Industry Analysis and Competitive Landscape
Forward Industry Trends and Market Size
NVIDIA operates in the AI semiconductor (AI Accelerator Chip) market, essential for training and inference of generative AI models. This market is growing explosively as the emergence of trillion-parameter models 32 has triggered a new "AI Factory" 25 data center construction race.
Market size forecasters are failing to keep up with the actual speed of growth. In 2024, the AI chip market size was estimated between $53 billion 33 and $118 billion 34, and it is projected to reach $295 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 33.2%.33
However, Deloitte admitted its 2024 forecast of $50 billion was "too conservative" and the actual market reached $125 billion.35 AMD's CEO revised the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for AI accelerators to $500 billion by 2028.35 This suggests the industry itself is at the very beginning of its 'J-curve' of growth.
Competitive Peer Group Analysis
NVIDIA's competitive environment is split across three fronts:
- Traditional GPU Competitor (AMD): AMD 36 is aiming to be the 'second source' provider with its MI300/MI350 series.37 While its hardware (e.g., VRAM capacity) is competitive in some aspects 38, its software platform, ROCm, suffers from 'bugs and QA issues' 29, acting as an 'Achilles' heel' that prevents it from challenging CUDA's dominance.
- New AI Chip Competitor (Intel): Intel aims to capture 8.7% of the AI training market in 2025 with its Gaudi 3 chip.39
- Hyperscalers (In-House Chips): The largest customers—Google (TPU) 40, Amazon (Trainium) 41, Microsoft (Maia) 13, and Meta (MTIA) 42—are designing their own chips. This is the most significant long-term threat, discussed in Section 5.
6
| Player | Core Product | Market Share (AI Accelerator) | Key Strategy & Strength/Weakness |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | H100, H200, Blackwell | ~80%+ 6 | Strength: CUDA monopoly ecosystem 26, full-stack 6, dominant hardware performance.44 |
| AMD (AMD) | Instinct MI300, MI350 | ~8-10% 43 | Strength: 2nd source, competitive hardware (VRAM 38). Weakness: ROCm software bugs/immaturity.29 |
| Intel (INTC) | Gaudi 3 | <5% (8.7% target for 2025 39) | Strength: Existing data center presence. Weakness: Late-comer, performance/software deficit. |
| Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, etc.) | TPU, Trainium, Maia | ~15-20% (Internal Use) 42 | Strength: Workload optimization, cost savings.12 Weakness: Internal-use only, lacks broad ecosystem. |
NVIDIA's true competitor isn't AMD; it's 'Hardware Abstraction Layers.' The market currently looks like a 1-on-1 battle between 'NVIDIA CUDA' and 'AMD ROCm'.29 However, "hardware-agnostic" software layers like OpenAI's 'Triton' or 'SYCL' are emerging.44 Developers using Triton can code once, and the compiler optimizes it for either NVIDIA or AMD GPUs. This signifies software 'commoditizing' the hardware.
These abstraction layers could narrow NVIDIA's CUDA moat.44 This is precisely why NVIDIA is desperate to widen the 'hardware' performance gap with architectures like Blackwell 44, rather than resting on its CUDA laurels.
4. Key Investment Points (Bull Case)
📈 1. Overwhelming Technology Leadership: The Start of the Blackwell Super-Cycle
Announced in March 2025 31, the next-generation Blackwell architecture is not just a chip upgrade but a system-level innovation that forms the foundation of the 'AI Factory'.4 Blackwell is already recording the "fastest product ramp ever" in NVIDIA's history, with CEO Jensen Huang describing demand as "amazing".30
The GB200 NVL72 rack-scale system delivers 30 times faster inference performance 4 and 1.5 times higher AI performance 31 than the previous (Hopper) generation. This is essential for powering the next wave of 'Reasoning AI'.31 TrendForce projects Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025 47, indicating its market dominance will only strengthen.
Even during the transition to Blackwell, the current-generation H200 GPU shows a 28% speed improvement over the H100 5 and is being actively adopted by major clouds like Microsoft Azure.5
📈 2. New Massive Growth Axis: Dominating the 'Sovereign AI' Market
'Sovereign AI' is the movement by nations 25 or state governments 3 to secure their own AI capabilities using their own data, infrastructure, and workforce.25 It has emerged as an essential element of economic and national security, becoming the second major demand driver after hyperscalers.
NVIDIA anticipates $20 billion in revenue from the 'Sovereign AI' sector in the current fiscal year (FY26) alone 3, more than double the previous year. This new market is growing rapidly, already accounting for about 10% of total data center revenue.3
Countries worldwide, including the Middle East, India, Europe (France, Germany), Japan, and Canada 3, are building national AI infrastructure based on NVIDIA technology. NVIDIA supports them not just with chips, but with workforce training 50 and ecosystem development. This means securing long-term, 'sticky' high-quality customers 3 who, unlike hyperscalers, are not at risk of turning into competitors. This provides a powerful momentum that offsets the risks from the Chinese market.
📈 3. 'AI Factory' Full-Stack Domination: Rapid Growth of Spectrum-X Networking
In an AI factory connecting thousands of GPUs 32, the bottleneck is not the GPU but the 'networking.' NVIDIA is dominating this market with two proprietary technologies that solve this bottleneck:
- NVLink (Scale-Up): The 5th-gen NVLink connects 72 GPUs inside a server at an ultra-high speed of 1.8TB/s (14x faster than PCIe 5.0) 4, allowing them to function as one massive GPU.
- Spectrum-X (Scale-Out): The first Ethernet platform specifically designed for AI workloads 51, connecting GPU clusters between data centers.4
NVIDIA's networking business segment recorded $7.25 billion in revenue in Q2 FY26 (ending July 27, 2025), a 98% surge year-over-year.7
Notably, Meta and Oracle have decided to adopt Spectrum-X for their next-generation giga-scale AI data centers.8 Spectrum-X boosts network throughput to 95%, an overwhelming efficiency compared to standard Ethernet (60%).8 This demonstrates that after conquering the 'compute' market, NVIDIA is now rapidly conquering the 'networking' market. While competitors sell only GPUs, NVIDIA sells the entire rack solution—including GPUs, CPUs, and networking 4—securing system-level performance superiority and higher margins.
5. Key Risk Factors (Bear Case)
🚨 1. The Biggest Threat: US-China Geopolitical Disconnection (Loss of Chinese Market)
The most immediate and severe risk is the US-China technology rivalry. In early November 2025, the Trump administration banned the export of NVIDIA's latest Blackwell AI chips to China.9 The president declared, "The most advanced, we will not let anybody have them other than the United States".10
This risk is not just a possibility; it is a financial blow that has already materialized. NVIDIA recognized a $4.5 billion inventory write-down for the H20 chips 2 it had produced for China and anticipated a revenue hit of up to $8 billion.2
China, too, is banning the use of foreign AI chips in state-funded data centers 53 and accelerating the development of its domestic chips, such as the Huawei Ascend.54 The Chinese market, which accounted for 13% of revenue in fiscal year 2025 2, is at risk of effectively becoming 'zero,' which could permanently shrink NVIDIA's potential TAM (Total Addressable Market).
🚨 2. 'Customers are Competitors': Hyperscaler In-House Chip Development (ASIC)
The biggest long-term threat to NVIDIA's margins is the 'rebellion' of its largest customers (Hyperscalers). Google (TPU) 55, Amazon (Trainium) 41, Microsoft (Maia) 13, and Meta (MTIA) 42 are investing billions in developing their own AI chips (ASICs) for two reasons: (1) the high cost of NVIDIA's chips 13 and (2) escaping the CUDA ecosystem dependency.11
JPMorgan predicts that these 'in-house' custom chips will capture 45% of the AI accelerator market by 2028, up from 37% in 2024.11
This is like "death by a thousand cuts".11 Even if hyperscalers use Blackwell for the most expensive 'training' tasks, they will likely use cheaper, 'good enough' in-house chips for cost-sensitive, large-scale 'inference' tasks.12 This is the most fundamental threat that will pressure the premium pricing 11 and high margins 11 NVIDIA has exclusively enjoyed.
🚨 3. Supply Chain's Achilles' Heel: TSMC and Geopolitical Concentration
NVIDIA's production of cutting-edge GPUs (4NP, 5nm process) 56 is entirely dependent on Taiwan's TSMC.2 In particular, TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) advanced packaging 35 technology is the key 'chokepoint' determining NVIDIA's GPU production volume.57
A single point of failure risk exists, where NVIDIA's entire production line could halt in the event of US-China conflict over Taiwan 60 or a natural disaster.
NVIDIA management is aware of this risk. The $5 billion equity investment in Intel announced in September 2025 61 is interpreted not as a simple financial investment, but as a strategic risk-mitigation measure to reduce dependency on TSMC and nurture Intel's foundry (IFS) as a future second source.
6. Financial Analysis
Key Financial Statement Summary
NVIDIA's financial performance has recorded historic growth since the AI boom began in Fiscal Year 2024 (FY2024). The company's fiscal year (FY) ends at the end of January each year.62
Comparing the pre-AI boom (FY2023) to post-boom (FY2025), revenue increased 4.8-fold while operating income increased 19.5-fold. This demonstrates the phenomenal operating leverage of the AI data center business. Furthermore, the explosively generated cash was used to pay down debt (Debt/Equity ratio 0.54 in FY2023 $\rightarrow$ 0.13 in FY2025), making the financial structure even healthier.63
30
| Financial Item ($ Millions) | FY 2025 (Ended 01/26/2025) | FY 2024 (Ended 01/28/2024) | FY 2023 (Ended 01/29/2023) |
| Total Revenue | 130,500 30 | 60,922 | 26,974 |
| Operating Income | 81,460 (Est.) 64 | 32,972 64 | 4,224 64 |
| Net Income | 72,960 (Est.) 64 | 29,760 64 | 4,368 64 |
The most recent quarter, Q2 FY2026 (ended July 27, 2025), saw revenue of $46.7 billion (up 56% YoY), operating income of $28.4 billion (up 53% YoY), and net income of $26.4 billion (up 59% YoY).65
Key Financial Ratio Analysis
NVIDIA's profitability is at a phenomenal level, with an operating margin of 62.42% in FY25, meaning it keeps over 62 cents of every $100 in sales as operating profit.
63
| Financial Ratio | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | Insight |
| Profitability | ||||
| Operating Margin | 62.42% | 54.12% | 15.66% | Phenomenal margins from AI data centers. |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 55.85% | 48.85% | 16.19% | Very high profit generation relative to shareholder equity. |
| Stability | ||||
| Debt/Equity | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.54 | Debt ratio has fallen sharply due to cash generation. Top-tier financial stability. |
| Current Ratio | 3.24 | 3.15 | 2.25 | Short-term debt repayment ability is very strong. 64 |
| Growth | ||||
| Revenue Growth (Y/Y) | +114% | +126% | -0.2% | FY2024-2025 was a period of historic, ultra-high growth. |
Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns
NVIDIA's dividend is symbolic, at $0.01 per quarter ($0.04 annually) 65, with a payout ratio of just 1.13%.67
The core shareholder return policy is share buybacks. In the first half of fiscal 2026 (H1 FY26) alone, $24.3 billion was returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.65 On August 26, 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $60.0 billion in share repurchase authorization.65 This reflects the company's strong cash flow and management's confidence in the stock price.
7. Valuation & Forecast
Valuation Methodology
Due to the extreme growth and volatility of the AI market 35, traditional DCF models estimating cash flows five years out have low reliability. However, Morningstar, citing the $0.5 trillion in cumulative revenue visibility for the Blackwell/Rubin product lines 68, recently raised its DCF-based Fair Value Estimate (FVE) to $225.68
This report uses a Comparative P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Ratio Model as the core valuation methodology, which reflects the explosive profit growth.
Peer Group Comparative Valuation
Contrary to the common belief that NVIDIA's valuation (P/E 55x) is expensive, it is actually trading cheaper than its premium chip peers (AMD, Broadcom) due to its explosive earnings (E) growth.
NVIDIA's 12-month forward P/E (FWD P/E) is 45.33x, while competitor AMD is at 109.46x and Broadcom (AVGO) is at 82.66x.70 This means investors are paying a much higher multiple for the future earnings of AMD and Broadcom than for NVIDIA. NVIDIA is actually exhibiting 'Growth at a Reasonable Price' (GARP) characteristics.
70
| Metric | NVIDIA (NVDA) | AMD (AMD) | Broadcom (AVGO) | NVIDIA vs. Peers |
| P/E (TTM) | 55.81x 70 | 67.04x 70 | 90.41x 70 | In line with industry average |
| P/E (FWD) | 45.33x 70 | 109.46x 70 | 82.66x 70 | Significantly undervalued vs. peers |
| EV/EBITDA (FWD) | 37.06x 71 | - | - | Reflects earnings growth |
| PEG Ratio (FWD) | 1.22 70 | 1.75+ 70 | 1.75 70 | Reasonable given growth rate |
🎯 Price Target Calculation
- Assumption: 12 months from now, at the end of 2026, the market will begin to price in 2027 (FY2028) earnings.
- EPS Estimate: Wall Street consensus expects FY2026 (current fiscal year) EPS of $4.45 72 and FY2027 (next year, Calendar 2026) EPS of $6.00.73
- Base Case:
- Applied EPS: FY2027 Consensus EPS of $6.00 73
- Applied P/E: 40.0x (A slight compression from the current FWD P/E of 45.3x 70, but still a multiple that reflects strong growth)
- Price Target = $6.00 $\times$ 40.0 = $240.00
Scenario-Based Forecast
69
| Scenario | Expected Price | Key Assumptions |
| Best Case (Bull) | $300.00 | Blackwell demand explodes, Sovereign AI revenue exceeds expectations. Reaches upper-end targets from Melius ($300 69), BofA ($275 69), HSBC ($275 74). (EPS $6.00 $\times$ P/E 50x) |
| Base Case (Base) | $240.00 | Current trend continues. Sovereign AI offsets China risk. Hyperscaler in-house chip development proceeds at a moderate pace. (EPS $6.00 $\times$ P/E 40x) |
| Worst Case (Bear) | $135.00 | Full-blown China risk 10 + Hyperscaler investment pullback 75 occur simultaneously. AI bubble fears 68 materialize. (FY26 EPS $4.45 $\times$ P/E 30x) |
Wall Street Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts maintain an overwhelmingly bullish consensus on NVIDIA.
76
| Item | Details |
| Total Analysts | 37 ~ 43 |
| Rating | Overwhelming Buy |
| Average Price Target | $222.92 ~ $233.05 |
| Highest Price Target | $300.00 ~ $350.00 |
| Lowest Price Target | $100.00 ~ $135.00 |
8. Conclusion and Investment Strategy
Final Investment Thesis and Summary
We maintain our 'Strong Buy' rating on NVIDIA and a 12-month price target of $240.00.
NVIDIA is the 'Full-Stack' platform monopoly of the AI era, possessing three major growth engines: (1) the Blackwell architecture, (2) the new Sovereign AI market, and (3) Spectrum-X networking. At present, these engines are overpowering the two major risks: (1) US-China conflict ($8B revenue hit) 2 and (2) hyperscaler defection (45% market erosion).11
The valuation, at a FWD P/E of 45x 70, is actually 'cheap' compared to competitors (AMD at 109x).70 The stock price decline in early November 2025 80 is a short-term shock from China risks 10 and is disconnected from long-term fundamentals.72 This presents a perfect 'Buy the Dip' opportunity 81 for long-term investors.
💡 Proposed Investment Strategy
- Suitable Investor Profile: Best suited for Growth Investors 72 with a long-term horizon (3+ years). Investors must be able to tolerate high volatility. It is not suitable for value investors focused on short-term valuation.83
- Efficient Trading Method (Phased-Buy Strategy):
- The current price (Nov 6, 2025) is technically in 'oversold' territory (RSI 26.7) 80 and is approaching short-term support between $183 84 and $187.80
- 1st Tranche: Enter with 30% of position at the current price level ($195).
- 2nd Tranche: If geopolitical risk causes a further decline, add 40% at the key support level around $183 84 (Buy the Dip).
- 3rd Tranche: Add the final 30% upon confirming a breakout above the key resistance level of $210.85
- Timing Advice:
- Buy Point: Now (early Nov 2025) is the optimal time for phased entry, as the bad news regarding China 10 is fully public.
- Hold Point: Recommend holding until the FY26 annual earnings release (February 2026). At this point, it will be numerically proven that 'Sovereign AI' revenue ($20B) 3 more than offsets the China loss ($8B) 2, which will trigger a stock re-rating.
9. Appendix
- Key References:
- NVIDIA Investor Relations (investor.nvidia.com) 86
- NVIDIA Press Releases (nvidianews.nvidia.com)
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) EDGAR System (NVIDIA 10-K, 10-Q Filings) 62
- Disclaimer:
- This report was prepared based on the provided materials (Snippets) and is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to trade. All responsibility for investment decisions lies with the investor.
- The data in this report is current as of November 7, 2025, and market conditions are subject to change without notice.
- The contents of this report are prepared for the public interest and do not constitute investment advice for any specific individual or entity.